Ateneo Policy Center published 14 working papers in 2020

The Ateneo Policy Center, Ateneo School of Government's policy research unit, is pleased to announce the publication of fourteen (14) papers under the ASOG Working Paper Series for 2020.

ASOG WP 20-001: MANAGING THE ENERGY TRILEMMA IN THE PHILIPPINES, authored by Joyce Marie Lagac and Dr Josef T. Yap of the ASEP-CELLS project. The objective of this paper is to evaluate the effectiveness of the Feed-in Tariff (FiT) policy in promoting renewable energy development in the Philippines by assessing its costs and benefits. Data show that while the FiT led to the increase in RE generating capacity, the share of renewable energy in the total power generation mix has been declining since 2011. The findings also suggest that the Philippines has incurred a net social cost from its implementation of the FiT.

ASOG WP 20-002: A CRISIS OF CONFIDENCE: THE CASE OF DENGVAXIA IN THE PHILIPPINES, authored by Dr Ronald U. Mendoza of the Ateneo School of Government, Sheena A. Valenzuela of Ateneo Policy Center, and Dr Manuel M. Dayrit of the Ateneo School of Medicine and Public Health (ASMPH). This case tackles the governance issues surrounding the dengue vaccination program, emphasizing the important role of public communication. As there indeed were governance issues surrounding a vaccine program, how best to address them given the potential public health implications?

ASOG WP 20-003: UNPACKING PRESIDENTIAL SATISFACTION: INSIGHTS FROM SURVEY DATA FROM THE PHILIPPINES, authored by Tristan Canare of the Asian Institute of Management Policy Center, Dr Ronald U. Mendoza, Leonardo Jaminola, and Jurel Yap from the Ateneo Policy Center.  As a contribution to the literature on leadership satisfaction and public opinion, this study empirically examines data on Philippine presidential net satisfaction generated by well-established survey firms in that country, as well as a unique survey commissioned by the authors of this study. Using both macro- and microlevel data, this study unpacks the links between survey results on citizens’ satisfaction with leadership and policies in the Philippines to try and advance our understanding of the possible factors that may drive them. This study finds scant evidence that economic links are tied to presidential satisfaction, despite the primacy of the economy in Philippine surveys of key policy issues. Instead, there is evidence of herd behavior and partial evidence of disinformation possibly linked to presidential net satisfaction. The findings here suggest there should be more caution in interpreting presidential satisfaction indicators. 

ASOG WP 20-004: EVALUATING THE FEED-IN TARIFF POLICY IN THE PHILIPPINES, authored by Joyce Marie Lagac and Dr. Josef T. Yap of the ASEP-CELLS project. The objective of this paper is to evaluate the effectiveness of the Feed-in Tariff (FiT) policy in promoting renewable energy development in the Philippines by assessing its costs and benefits. Data show that while the FiT led to the increase in RE generating capacity, the share of renewable energy in the total power generation mix has been declining since 2011. The findings also suggest that the Philippines has incurred a net social cost from its implementation of the FiT.

ASOG WP 20-005: COUNTER-TERRORISM IN THE PHILIPPINES: REVIEW OF KEY ISSUES, authored by Dr Ronald U. Mendoza, RAdm. Rommel Jude Ong PN (Ret.), Atty. Dion Lorenz Romano of the Ateneo School of Government. In this paper, the authors discussed the following questions: what were the compelling reasons to certify the bill as more urgent than say, the extension of the extraordinary powers of the President to address the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on the ordinary Filipino and our economy? Is the bill aligned with our constitution? Will it solve the domestic security problems festering for decades? What drives the objections against the bill? But perhaps the most disturbing concern among most members of society – do we have a common understanding of what is a terrorist?

ASOG WP 20-006: REIMAGINING GOVERNANCE: RECLAIMING SOLIDARITY AND SUBSIDIARITY IN THE TIME OF COVID-19, authored by Atty. Michael Henry Yusingco of Ateneo Policy Center and Atty. Tanya Lat of Ateneo Law School. The paper analyzed the dynamics between the national government, local governments, and the private sector, and offer recommendations on how local autonomy and citizens’ participation can help support innovation and strengthen governance towards addressing the myriad issues brought about by the pandemic.

ASOG WP 20-007: DYNASTIC POLITICAL NETWORKS: INSIGHTS FROM THE CASE OF WESTERN SAMAR, authored by Dr Ronald U. Mendoza, Joshua Hiwatig, and Miann Banaag of Ateneo Policy Center. Network analysis of familial links in politics provides a novel way of understanding strategies of alliance building and power consolidation among political dynasties. This paper demonstrates how network analysis can be applied to family-centric political networks in Western Samar, Philippines. It presents empirical evidence on how these networks emerged and evolved over time, as well as the possible roles played by specific actors (in this case politicians) in the network. It highlights the use of network representation to visualize how political figures elected during the period 1988-2016 are connected to each other; and how those connections and the political power of certain political clans evolve over time. We observe that murder and marriage could be among a set of strategies pursued by some Philippine political clans to consolidate power and perpetuate themselves in elected office. This study offers rich insights into the political networks built by dynastic clans in the Philippines, with possible applications of the methodology in other developing country democracies.

ASOG WP 20-008: POLITICO ECONOMIC DETERMINANTS OF ELECTRIC COOPERATIVES’ PERFORMANCE IN THE PHILIPPINES, authored by Laarni Escresa and Adrian Glova of Ateneo Policy Center.This paper examines the politico-economic determinants of electric cooperative (EC) performance in the Philippines. The study utilized ordinary least squares (OLS), ordered logit, fractional logit, and beta regression techniques to assess different measures of EC performance (i.e. consumer-employee ratio, performance ratings, system losses, and collection efficiency rate) and how they relate to political variables. The results show that higher politicization, as measured by an increased share of fat political dynasties (Mendoza et al., 2019), is associated with more bloated staffing for ECs and relatively poor collection efficiency. Moreover, economic and EC-level variables, such as per capita income, gigawatt hour sold, and to an extent, consumers per circuit kilometers of line, are significantly correlated with EC performance. 

ASOG WP 20-009: MANAGING THE ENERGY TRILEMMA USING OPTIMAL PORTFOLIO THEORY, authored by Joyce Marie Lagac and Dr. Josef T. Yap of ASEP-CELLS project. Presence of the energy trilemma implies the need for policymakers to make choices among its components. One method to determine the trade-offs among the various components is calculating the optimal energy mix using portfolio theory. In the standard model, the various generating technologies are each associated with two important parameters: the expected rate of return and the risk measured by the variance in the return. Two extensions are made in this paper. First, a third dimension is added to the framework by incorporating the amount of carbon emissions for each type of generating technology. Second, a methodology to select a point (or line) in the optimal frontier is proposed. A welfare function is introduced whose components are the three relevant variables: risk, return, and carbon emissions. The weights of each of these variables reflect the preferences of a hypothetical Department of Energy Secretary. Different combinations of weights will yield different choices which are defined in terms of the shares of the various generation

technologies.

ASOG WP 20-010: INTERROGATING THE CENTRALIZATION-DECENTRALIZATION TENSION IN THE PHILIPPINES IN THE MIDST OF THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC, authored by Sophiya M. Navarro, Atty. Michael Henry Yusingco, and Sarah Vernice Sison of Ateneo Policy Center. This paper attempted to describe centralization-decentralization tensions and provide an explanation of its sources to understand and assess the current decentralization context of the Philippines using the government’s COVID-19 crisis response as the frame of reference. Overall, using the case of the Philippines, the analysis will explore possible policy recommendations that can assist the government in navigating or finding a balance between the policy intricacies and implications presented by centralization and decentralization in government. More importantly, the analysis also hopes to contribute to the ongoing discourse on decentralization and federalism especially in the case of the Philippines.

ASOG WP 20-011: ACCESS TO SUSTAINABLE ENERGY IN THE PHILIPPINES: MARKET FAILURE AND POLITICAL ECONOMY CONSIDERATIONS, authored by Dr. Josef T. Yap, Laarni Escresa-Guillermo, and Yla Gloria Marie Paras of the ASEP CELLS Project. The Philippines has fallen behind its Asian neighbors in terms of energy access as measured by electricity consumption and electrification rate. Renewable energy, however, has a relatively high share in the generation mix but this has remained stagnant in the past two decades. Meanwhile, the Philippines fares relatively well in terms of energy efficiency but this may be distorted by the direction of causality between energy consumption and level of development. Market failure — defined as the inability of the market to allocate goods and services efficiently or allocate them at all — is a principal reason for problems in energy access, energy efficiency, and progress in the use of renewable energy. Appropriate government interventions can remedy these market failures. The Department of Energy (DoE) has many programs and policies in place that are aligned to such government interventions. However, political economy considerations have prevented some of these programs and policies to be implemented effectively. This paper adopts a theoretical framework to analyze the existing constraints and identifies relevant areas for carrying out the analysis. The latter forms the core of the ASEP-CELLs project agenda in knowledge management.

ASOG WP 20-012: DIAGNOSING FACTORS BEHIND OFFICERS’ PERFORMANCE IN THE PHILIPPINE NATIONAL POLICE, authored by Dr. Ronald U. Mendoza, Emerald Jay Ilac, Ariza Francisco, and Jelo Michael Casilao of Ateneo Policy Center. The Philippine National Police (PNP) faces myriad challenges, spanning governance, corruption and national security threats. Hence, securing a strong leadership pipeline equipped not only to face these challenges, but also to strengthen policing effectiveness and over-all security sector reforms is crucial. This study aims to map out some of the main factors that both build or erode key leadership qualities and performance in the PNP. Using quantitative and qualitative methods, the study examines four main factors, namely personality traits, organizational culture, demographic profile and professional history, as predictor of performance for officers in the National Capital Region. It finds evidence that personality traits, specifically openness, agreeableness and neuroticism, as well as number of transfers, area of assignment, training on managerial skills, age and education level are all factors for good performance for officers in the PNP National Capital Region Police Office. These results emphasize the importance of training and mentoring components in preparing young officers and recruits for the rigors of service. It also underscores the need for a deeper analysis of recruitment and selection policies, to ensure that the PNP successfully attracts the strongest candidates with the right leadership characteristics and building blocks for service.

ASOG WP 20-013: INEQUALITY, OLIGARCHY AND DYNASTY, authored by Dr. Ronald U. Mendoza of Ateneo School of Government. This paper is the 19th Jaime V. Ongpin Memorial Lecture delivered by the author last 21 October 2020. The first section discusses inequality and its double-edged nature with respect to inclusive growth and development. The paper then elaborates on the related features of oligarchy and dynasty—two elements of inequality in the Philippine context. The author emphasizes the importance of analyzing the impact of the patterns of leadership for political dynasties, and the structure of the economy as regards potential business oligarchy. He outlines a three-point reform agenda to tackle the deep roots of inequality in the Philippines, focusing on social protection against aggregate shocks, and further enhancing competition in the political sphere and the market economy.

ASOG WP 20-014: PROMOTING RENEWABLE ENERGY: HOW FARES THE PHILIPPINES?, authored by Dr. Josef T. Yap and Joyce Marie Lagac of the ASEP CELLS Project. Sustainability is a key component of energy security. To help achieve the global long-term goal of zero-carbon emissions by 2050, the Philippine government has implemented laws, policies, and programs to increase the share of renewable energy (RE). An important example is the feed-in-tariff (FiT) scheme. The share of RE in electricity generation, however, has fallen from 45.4% in 1990 to 21% in 2019, a clear indication that the interventions have not been effective. Main constraints to the expansion of RE are formidable, which include market-based factors, technology inertia, market failure, and political economy issues. Even if policies are designed to overcome these constraints, there has been a delay in the implementation of some of them; but more importantly, many of the interventions do not adhere to the principles underlying sound industrial policy. In particular, policies should abide by the principle of embeddedness, which refers to the coordination between the public sector and private firms that allows the former to be aware of the constraints and opportunities of the latter. 

Previous publications of the Ateneo Policy Center can be accessed through this link: 

http://ateneo.edu/aps/asog/research_and_publications/research_materials/working_paper_series